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Commodity Trading

Many people have become very rich in the commodity markets. It is one of the few investment areas where an individual with limited capital can make extraordinary profits in a relatively short period of time. Many people lose money in commodity trading. The truth is that commodity trading is only as risky as you want to make it.

Those who treat trading as a get-rich-quick scheme are likely to lose because they have to take big risks. If you act prudently, treat your trading like a business instead of a giant gambling casino and are willing to settle for a reasonable return, the risks are acceptable. The probability of success is excellent.


The process of trading commodities is also known as futures trading. Unlike other kinds of investments, such as stocks and bonds, when you trade futures, you do not actually buy anything or own anything. You are speculating on the future direction of the price in the commodity you are trading. This is like a bet on future price direction. The terms "buy" and "sell" merely indicate the direction you expect future prices will take.

There are many inherent advantages of commodity futures as an investment vehicle over other investment alternatives such as savings accounts, stocks, bonds, options, real estate and collectibles.

The primary attraction, of course, is the potential for large profits in a short period of time. The reason that futures trading can be so profitable is leverage.

While profits can be large in commodity trading, it is not easy to make consistently correct decisions about what and when to buy and sell. Commodity speculation offers an important advantage over such illiquid vehicles as real estate and collectibles. The balance in your account is always available.

If you maintain sufficient margin, you can even spend your current profit on a trade without closing out the position. With stocks, bonds and real estate, you can't spend your gains until you actually sell the investment.


Commodity speculation offers an important advantage over such illiquid vehicles as real estate and collectibles. The balance in your account is always available. If you maintain sufficient margin, you can even spend your current profit on a trade without closing out the position. With stocks, bonds and real estate, you can't spend your gains until you actually sell the investment.


Commodity trading is not particularly complicated. Unlike the stock market where there are over ten thousand potential stocks and mutual funds, there are only about forty viable futures markets to trade. Those markets cover the gamut of market sectors, however, you can diversify throughout all important segments of the world economy.

There are even tax advantages to making your money from futures trading. Regardless of the actual holding period, commodity profits are automatically taxed as sixty percent long-term capital gains and forty percent short-term capital gains. The current maximum capital gains rate is thirty-three percent, somewhat less than the maximum rate for ordinary income. To the extent that capital gains tax rates are reduced in the future, commodity traders will benefit. If a distinction is re-established so that taxes on long-term gains are lower than on short-term gains, commodity traders will benefit.


The risks of trading:

Before entering into Commodity trading , it is good to take a look at the risks in trading. Commodity trading has the reputation of being a highly risky endeavor. It is true that a high percentage of traders eventually lose money. Many people have lost substantial sums.

Anyone who is going to try speculation should be fully aware of and be comfortable with the risks involved. Managing the risks of trading is a very important part of any trader's success. Although the risks can be managed, they can never be eliminated. Remember that the high returns successful speculators can earn, are available only because the speculator is being paid to take risk away from others.
Some surprise situations that can cause unpredicted losses are freezes, floods, droughts, government currency interventions and crop reports. With attention and foresight a trader can sidestep these risky situations. The best way to control unpredictable risks are to trade conservatively so larger-than-expected losses are still only a small percentage of the total account.
There is no point trading commodities if you cannot handle the psychological discomfort of making losing trades. While people tend to take losses personally as a sign of failure, good traders shrug them off. The best trading plans result in many losses. Because of the amount of randomness in market price action, such losses are inevitable.


The Trading process:

Some typical steps in the process of making a commodity trade including the trader's decision-making process and the procedures involved in actually placing the trade.

In order to make decisions about when to trade commodity futures, you must have a source of price data. Many daily newspapers carry some commodity prices in their financial sections. The Wall Street Journal has comprehensive commodity price listings. Investor's Business Daily has both price tables and numerous price charts.

All experienced commodity traders prefer to look at price activity on a chart rather than trying to interpret tables of numbers. In financial analysis, charts are indispensable for quickly grasping the essence of historical and recent price action.

Looking at such bar charts enables a trader to see the recent trend of prices whether up, down or sideways in whatever time frame they choose. Following the current trend of prices are the cornerstone of successful trading.

There are a number of ways to obtain the price charts a trader needs to analyze the markets. You can make your own using graph paper. This sounds rather primitive, but some experts recommend it as a good way to put yourself in close touch with price activity and monitor risk.
Another source of chart is the printed chart service. There is space on the charts to update them daily during the following week until next chart book arrives. These printed chart books normally have a number of indicators plotted along with the price action and contain a wealth of additional information.

For computer owners there are many software programs that create fancy charts on the computer screen. You can input the price data manually or, via telephone modem, download comprehensive data after the markets close for the day. Those with larger budgets can install a small satellite dish and watch price changes in all the markets nearly instantaneously as they occur. The software creates charts dynamically on the computer screen as each trade takes place on the exchanges. You can put many different charts on the screen and thus watch numerous markets all around the world in real time.

Those who can't trade profitably without a computer probably won't be helped too much by using a computer. It may actually be detrimental by causing an increase in trading frequency. While a computer will not make a bad trader into good one, they are fun to use, and they do make a trader's life easier.

There are two primary analytic methods for deciding when to take a futures position: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis involves using economic data relating to supply and demand to forecast likely future price action. Technical analysis involves analyzing past price action of the market itself to forecast the likely future price action.

While there are differences of opinion about the relative merits of the two approaches, almost all successful traders emphasize technical analysis. There are a number of reasons for this. First and foremost is the difficulty of obtaining accurate fundamental data. While various governments and private companies publish statistics concerning crop sizes and demand levels, these numbers are gross estimates at best. With the current global marketplace, even if you could obtain accurate current information, it would still be impossible to predict future supply and demand with enough accuracy to make commodity trading decisions.
Technical analysts argue that since the most knowledgeable commercial participants are actively trading in the markets, the current price trend is the most accurate assessment of future supply and demand. If someone is correct that for fundamental reasons, prices will likely move up strongly in the future, the commercial participants who have the greatest knowledge and influence on the markets should certainly be moving the price upward right now. If price instead is moving down, a lot of very knowledgeable people must think price in the future will likely be down, not up.

For this reason, almost all successful speculators learn to follow price action and not try futilely to predict turning points in advance. They seek to trade in tune with the large participants who move the markets.


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